What is the Non-Farm Employment Change Report?

The U.S Non-Farm Employment Change, also known as “Non-Farm Payrolls” (NFP) or “Employment Report”, is a monthly economic indicator used to measure the change in the number of employed people, excluding those in the farming industry.Each month the Current Employment Statistics program surveys about 150,000 businesses, representing approximately 390,000 worksites, in order to provide detailed industry data on employment, work-hours, and earnings of workers on non-farm payrolls for all 50 US states. The survey is then published on the first Friday of each month.The NFP is an important leading indicator that also affects consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. Traders value the indicator with the highest importance as its early monthly release can set the tone for the rest of the month’s market movement. Investors should also note Thursday’s 12:15 GMT release of Automatic Data Processing Inc.’s (ADP’s) estimate of Non-Farm Employment Change. In the past, ADP has provided an accurate assessment of what was to come from the actual NFP release a day later. With the volatility of world economies in recent months, ADP has not been able to correctly estimate the Non-Farm Payroll outcome which has strengthened the real power behind Friday’s news release.If the Survey Comes Inline with Market ForecastsExpectations for this month reveal that the Non-Farm Employment Change figures will drop by 73K from July. Such a result, should it take place, will be the biggest drop in employment numbers that the U.S economy has experienced since April of this year. Former surveys have shown that publications that reflect a significant contraction in the job sector had a radical impact on the USD, and concluded in a sudden downtrend. Considering that the survey has delivered negative figures for several consecutive months now, another sharp drop could signal a temporary halt in the dollar’s bullishness, and the USD could be facing an unfortunate weekend, causing the EUR/USD pair to rise back toward levels around 1.4700If the Survey Will Surprise with BullishnessIf the actual figure is higher than forecasted, traders are likely to see the USD appreciate against its currency pairs and crosses. Currently, investors are setting their positions on the USD based on the assumption that by the end of the week the USD should face a sharp bearish movement. However, if the survey delivers better figures than expected, such as 40K drop instead of the forecasted 73K drop, investors will be compelled to reevaluate their strategies, and go long on the USD. In this turn of events, the dollar might receive an extra boost that will broaden its bullish voyage and the EUR/USD could drop toward levels of 1.4350, breaking what would be a 9 month record.